Vow and Declare is in perfect condition for his attempt to go back to back in this year’s Melbourne Cup, writes majority owner and Camden resident GEOFF CORRIGAN in this exclusive insight for South West Voice in Macarthur readers ahead of tomorrow’s big race:
Though his form in lead up races hasn’t been great it’s worth going through a few points.
Firstly we know he can run the distance, and importantly he can, if the pace is on, run it quickly.
His run in the 2019 Tattersall’s Cup over 3000m proved this. The most common theme since his win last year is that he benefitted from a slowly run race and a great ride.
Both of these are true to a certain extent, but we were hoping for a faster pace.
Secondly our trainer Danny O’Brien has admitted that it was a mistake this year to run in April in the Queen Elizabeth over 2000m in Sydney over what was a heavy “sticky” track.
Finally if you can ignore his Caulfield Cup run on what was an unsuitable heavy track, then his other runs this campaign, though not flash, were okay.
For the 2020 Cup he’s finally drawn a good barrier, 4, and Danny has put blinkers on to sharpen his concentration.
We also have a new jockey in Jamie Mott, who is a natural heavyweight rider, so he’ll only have to carry 1 kg in lead bags.
Vow has the task ahead of him because this year he’ll be carrying 57kg (as opposed to 52kg last year) and his indifferent form in the lead ups has led to a lot of locals asking me if he’s still running.
There’s an old saying in racing that weight can stop a train!
It’s been very different this year and not just because of Covid-19, we went into last year’s Cup full of confidence on the back of an excellent campaign.
We were attending events in Melbourne, this year we’ve been sitting at home.
Do I think Vow and Declare can win? The answer is a yes, but with a few qualifications.
The track must remain in the good 3 – soft 5 range.
He also needs to be midfield on the fence conserving energy in a fast run race, then start coming into the race from the 1000m mark.
If Vow and Declare wasn’t my horse I’d say he was a top 10 chance at best, purely based on his win last year and indifferent form leading up to this year.
But Sue and I are hoping for a good ride, from a good barrier and a comfortable run during the race.
My top five are Vow and Declare, Surprise Baby, Finche, Tiger Moth and The Chosen One.
